(http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/real_estate/home_ownership/index.htm)
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As we continue to witness never before seen lows in the housing market, a source of national pride has taken a sour turn. Home ownership is on the decline and, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report, the United States is fast becoming a nation of renters.
Last Friday, the Census Bureau reported that the percentage of people who owned a home had dropped to 65.9% during the second quarter, its lowest level since the first quarter of 1998 and a far cry from the high of 69.2% reached in late 2004.
Yet, in a research paper issued a week earlier, some other Morgan Stanley analysts like Oliver Chang and James Egan argued that the home ownership rate is even lower than the Census Bureau statistics say. In fact, once they factored in delinquent mortgage borrowers (the ones who are likely to lose their homes at some point because of default), Morgan Stanley calculated that the home ownership rate is more like 59.2%.
That’s the lowest level since the Census Bureau started keeping quarterly records back in 1965 (before that, it recorded home ownership rates once a decade). The Census Bureau’s statistics, however, do not factor in mortgage delinquencies.
Why are we witnessing such decrease?
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The combination of falling home prices, limited mortgage credit, continued liquidations, and better rental options is fundamentally changing the way Americans live, the analysts said.
We believe this change is only beginning and is moving the country towards becoming a society of renters.
Many people are still technically considered homeowners who occupy their homes, even though they no longer make their mortgage payments. These homeowners can squat for months or even years, because banks have been slow to process foreclosures in recent months.
In addition to the millions of people who have lost their homes to foreclosure, Morgan Stanley said that another reason for the decline in home ownership is that many of the people who would like to buy homes can’t get a mortgage. The private mortgage market has dried up and even the government-supported organizations, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have tightened their underwriting standards. For the first time in recent history, the government is no longer promoting home ownership for all Americans.
Obama’s housing scorecard
In a February housing finance report, the Obama administration stated that its goal was to “ensure that Americans have access to an adequate range of affordable housing options. This does not mean our goal is for all Americans to be homeowners.“
Fannie and Freddie have already made it more expensive for riskier homebuyers to borrow and, starting Oct. 1, the mortgage giants will reduce the maximum amounts they will lend in high-cost areas. The government wants to encourage private capital to fill the gap but, currently, Fannie and Freddie, along with loans from the Federal Housing Authority, account for about 90% of all mortgage lending these days.
What’s next?
Despite all these negative factors and statistics, there is still some hope that the housing market will stabilize and help relaunch the nation’s economic recovery as it has done before.
Ken Johnson, a professor of real estate at Florida International University, who co-authored a recent paper with Eli Beracha of East Carolina University about how homebuying is now a better choice for most Americans, said he doubts that home ownership will fall much further below current levels.
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Johnson thinks the market has already hit bottom and home prices should start appreciating, albeit slowly, this year. In addition, with such favorable interest rates and good deals on homes, it’s hard for potential buyers to resist taking advantage of the opportunity for too much longer. Prices have dipped 32% since they peaked in mid-2006 and interest rates on mortgages, if you can get one, are at or near historic lows. Last week on Thursday, LendingTree reported that rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan reached a record low during the day: 4%.
We at xtreme Holdings believe that such low and favorable rates and home prices, coupled with less restrictive and faster underwriting procedures can/will help the housing market get right back on track. Please comment and let us know your take on the subject.
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